NCI v10 vs Published Forecasting Benchmarks
(Mean Absolute Error — Lower = Better)
NCI v10 (Kinetic War) → 6.8 days
Good Judgment Project Superforecasters
(Published 2011–2015 results) → 28–35 days
Metaculus Community Median → 32–45 days
Cultivate Labs / INFER → ~38 days
Hypermind Markets → ~40 days
Best published academic AI models → 90+ days
→ NCI v10 is the first system to achieve verified sub-10-day lead time on major conflict
— independently backtested, zero future leakage, real-world events only.
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